A wave of disillusionment and anger — wide and by all appearances intensely felt — secured the presidency Tuesday for Donald Trump.
By Brad Heath, Mitchell Thorson, Jim Sergent, USA TODAY
November 9, 2016
A wave of disillusionment and anger — wide and by all appearances intensely felt — secured the presidency Tuesday for Donald Trump. He won by turning out victories in a wide swath of the United States, a base of support broad enough to secure him a strong majority in the Electoral College even though he lost the popular vote.
TRUMP WON THE ELECTION BECAUSE:
He benefited from an eight-year shift toward the Republican Party. Comparing the margin of victory to the 2012 election, we can see that Trump outperformed Mitt Romney heavily in large portions of the country. The places where Hillary Clinton improved on President Obama’s 2012 numbers, while often populous, were insufficient to give her the votes to clinch victory in battleground states.
Looking back even further, compared to the 2008 election, this trend is even more pronounced, as many counties, even traditionally liberal ones, have moved significantly to the right over the past 8 years. This map shows how Trump improved on John McCain’s margins in 2008.
Rust Belt connection
Trump connected with voters in key portions of the Rust Belt which was the location of four key states that would be won or lost by thin margins: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Republican support in counties with the highest percent of the working population in manufacturing jobs.
And areas with large decreases in unemployment
Republican support in counties with the largest decreases in unemployed popula- tion rates from 2010 to 2014.
CLINTON LOST THE ELECTION BECAUSE:
Lower turnout in predominantly black areas and Democratic bastions
Fewer Hispanics supported Clinton
Percentage of Hispanic voter support going to Democratic presidential candidates:
The education gap
Exit polls revealed a nation deeply divided. Men and those without a college education went strongly for Trump. Women and those who had a degree backed Clinton.
What drove their votes
It wasn’t the economy that drove voters’ decision this year. Instead, it was distaste — and often anger — at the way the fed- eral government is doing its job, and a deep sense that the USA is headed in the wrong direction. That was enough for voters to throw their support behind a first-time candidate who many of his sup- porters said they did not like or trust, or who they judged unfit to hold the office.